What NPV and IRR tell you
Net present value (NPV) brings every future cash flow back to today's money with a discount rate (your required return or cost of capital) and adds them up, including the initial investment as a negative number:
NPV = Σ CFt / (1 + r)t
- NPV > 0: the project returns the investment, the required return and some extra value. Accept it.
- NPV < 0: it does not reach the required return. Reject it.
The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that makes NPV exactly zero: the project's own rate of return. If the IRR is above your required rate, the project is worth it. It has no closed formula and is found numerically.
Example · invest $10,000, receive $3,000, $4,000, $5,000 and $2,000
At a 10% discount rate: −10,000 + 3,000/1.1 + 4,000/1.1² + 5,000/1.1³ + 2,000/1.1⁴ = −10,000 + 2,727 + 3,306 + 3,757 + 1,366 = NPV ≈ $1,155. The IRR is about 15.4%, above the 10% required, so the project is acceptable.
Payback period and profitability index
- Payback period: how long it takes for the cumulative cash flows to cover the investment. The discounted version uses present values and is always longer.
- Profitability index: present value of the inflows divided by the investment. Above 1 means a positive NPV.
Frequently asked questions
What discount rate should I use?
In finance courses it is usually given (WACC or required return). In practice it is the return you could get elsewhere at a similar risk, or the cost of the money you borrow.
Why can there be more than one IRR?
If the cash flows change sign more than once (for example, a big cost in the middle of the project), NPV can cross zero several times. In that case rely on NPV.
Is this the same as Excel's NPV function?
Not exactly: Excel's NPV() assumes the first value is at the end of year 1. To match this tool, use =NPV(rate, years 1…n) + initial investment, or Excel's IRR() for the IRR.
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